Saturday, June 21, 2014
I've recently finished reading Average Is Over by Tyler Cowen, and really enjoyed it.
I don't necessarily agree with the main conclusion, but there were a lot of interesting ideas presented along the way.
I suspect that Cowen is trying to take advantage of the fashionable concern about income (and wealth) inequality (I'm not very concerned about that, in itself). His thesis, which is pretty common, is that advancing capabilities of computer intelligence will further segment the economy between the owners and knowledge workers who can direct the machines, and the rest of the population who will be stuck providing low-paying services that aren't easily automated.
I think he's definitely right that the labor market is going to change (that's always a safe prediction), but I'm not as confident about what the distribution will look like. Since the machines will help generate tremendous wealth in goods and information, there might be a lot of demand for creative, high-paying (or at least ranging across a wide spectrum), services that people will either do better than machines, or just be preferred by customers (and Cowen does mention the importance of human coaches, for example). I don't know what these jobs will be, but I suspect people will figure out what others want and how they can make a living providing it.
I also have some quibbles with Cowen's predictions about science, suggesting that there will be fewer big advances and few paradigm-shifting individual discoveries, and more specialized progress among research teams with machines; such that no individuals can grasp more than a small part of their fields. I think science is more about generating better and better explanations, and I don't see a limit to what humans can grasp (at the level of good explanations rather than trivial factual details); but maybe seeing our limitations is one of my limitations...
But, whether or not "Average is over," it's still fascinating going along for the ride through speculation across multiple topics with a brilliant mind.
One insight that I really appreciated was the idea that the people who will really prosper will be those who best complement intelligent machines. Cowen's interesting analogy was with freestyle chess, where human and computer teams compete and play at a much higher level than just humans or just machines could do on their own.
If this kind of smart speculation appeals to you, you should definitely read this book.
Sunday, May 18, 2014
I agree with Ronald Bailey in this article, in which he argues for allowing genetic testing of embryos which some bioethicists want to ban because they fear that the parents will make poor decisions with that information and they think that the children should have an "'open future' unburdened by the knowledge of their genetic predispositions for adult onset illnesses."
This idea of an "open future" seems laughable to me. It made me think of an ostrich being stalked by hyenas. Does it have a more "open future" if it sticks its head in the ground and remains oblivious to the impending attack, or if it knows that an attack might come and has the opportunity try to deal with it to the best of its ability?
I understand that many people think that "Ignorance is bliss" and that we're all better off not knowing some things, but I (and others) often disagree, and I don't want some people forcing their knowledge preferences on others. I think this tendency to prefer ignorance comes from an irrational attempt to justify, and romanticize, traditional ways of dealing with the world that occurred before modern information was available.
This line of thought led me to think of other related issues of information and its control.
People may prefer to remain unaware of "spoilers" before they've seen a work, because they want to experience it for the first time the way the creator intended, and social pressure and conventions can help them remain ignorant in this way, but I don't think they have a coercively-enforcable right to prevent others from revealing things that they might not want to know. They don't own that information and don't have a right to control it.
If I don't think somebody has a right to prevent me from knowing test results (as long as I'm paying for the tests, and there are others who are willing to perform and help interpret the results for me), do I have a right to prevent other people from knowing things about me? What information is mine to control, and what isn't?
Do people have a right to control "private" information about themselves?
I think it depends. If the information was illegally obtained, overriding reasonable attempts to keep it private, then they probably do. If they allowed the information to get out by being unreasonably lax about controlling it, then they probably don't.
Should Google be able to publish personal details from my Gmail messages? Should it be able to sell information electronically gleened from them to third parties? What about aggregated information? Should the NSA be able to read them (without a warrant)? My intuition is that the case against the government violating my privacy is stronger, because they have the power to cause me more harm with it, and so privacy protections against them should be stronger.
I think this decision was decided wrongly. Apparently the European Union Court of Justice thinks people have a right for things about them to be "forgotten" and thus place a huge burden on Google (and other search engines, I suppose) to comply with requests to remove links to things people don't want to be easily discoverable.
The line is fuzzy and we'll have to evolve standards for where the default boundaries are (although people should be able to explicitly grant more rights over information to others; but not just by clicking "I agree" to a long legalistic notice). As computer systems, and the methods of aggregating information, change so too will reasonable conventions about what we can expect to remain private by default.
It would be nice if there were a simple rule that we could always apply and be sure about what information is ours to control, but I don't think we'll ever have such a rule (we might have laws that try to do it, but they'll be bad ones).
The world changes and I think the right way to live in it changes, too.
Sunday, April 13, 2014
I just watched Julia Sweeney's "Letting Go of God" DVD from Netflix and liked it quite a bit. It's very funny and thoughtful.
Her experience is very different from mine (I've always been skeptical and resistant to arguments from authority and popularity), but I suspect that hers is one that lots of others can relate to.
If it seems like the kind of thing you might enjoy, I recommend that you check it out.
Thursday, March 27, 2014
After being unhappy with how I looked in some vacation pictures last year, I decided to try to lose back the extra weight I've gained over the past few years. I've been able to lose back most of my goal, but still have a bit to go.
But, there's so much contradictory information about weight-loss and diet out there that I wanted to find out a bit more about what theories the best evidence supports in this area.
So, I recently read Gary Taubes' Why We Get Fat: And What To Do About It.
This isn't so much a diet book, as it is an explanation and history and survey of theories about what causes (heredity, calories in/calories out, fatty foods, lack of excercise, carbohydrates, etc.) people to get fat, and related health problems
Spoiler Alert: It's carbohydrates.
Heredity definitely plays a role, and exercise is valuable for other reasons, but it seems like carbohydrate ingestion dominates factors that one can control.
Taubes is very much driven by the evidence and I found the book easy to read and very persuasive. Again, it's not primarily a book filled with menu suggestions (although there's a bit of that in the Afterword); it's mostly an argument for eating few carbs. Low-carb diet details and suggestions can be found lots of other places.
Friday, February 28, 2014
I just watched this Reason.TV video of Ladar Levison (founder of Lavabit, the successful secure email provider he chose to shut down rather than comply with the FBI's efforts to compromise the privacy of his users).
It was inspiring, and I'm very happy that there are people like him around, helping us to maintain a shred of privacy.
I'm also intrigued by the Darkmail Technical Alliance he's promoting, along with the principals from Silent Circle (which also shut down their secure email service rather than compromise privacy).
Secure electronic mail that's easy enough for non-technical people to use will be challenging to develop and it could be even more challenging to achieve widespread adoption.
I wish them luck.
My answer to the title of this post is "YES!", I think we do have the right to a private conversation, and I hope we'll all be able to exercise that right without having to take heroic measures in order to do so.
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
I watched the President's State of the Union address last night and was happy to see that it was boring, without many grand program proposals. That's the best I could have hoped for from him.
Here's a pretty good video from the Cato Institute responding to some of the key comments and proposals in much the same way I did in my head.
Saturday, December 28, 2013
A "funny" thing happened to me yesterday. I got robbed.
Well, not exactly.
After a nice week's vacation in Las Vegas, my wife and son and I planned to go to breakfast and then off to the airport. As usual, I was carrying the heavy luggage down to the car by myself and was in a hurry to get it done. I carried one full-size suitcase and one carry-on bag (my son's) down the flight of stairs to our silver Hyundai Elantra rental car. One strange thing that happened was that my car remote failed to open the trunk, no matter how long I held the button down. But, it did seem to unlock the doors, so I opened driver's-side door, released the trunk manually and loaded the bags into the car.
But, then I noticed that the remote also failed to lock the doors. I heard a faint clicking, but the door didn't lock. I tried to lock it manually with the key (first time I tried the key in the door) but the key didn't turn. Seemed like an artifact of some stupid modern anti-theft system that depended on the remote. I wondered how we were going to lock the car at the restaurant, but figured that was a problem for later; now I just wanted to finish loading the car.
I walked back up to the room, told my wife about the remote-control and key issues, and brought down the second suitcase.
When I got back down to the car something seemed a little off. I noticed that the trunk was open (I was sure I'd closed it) and then saw that it was empty!! WTF??? Somebody had taken our stuff in the one minute it took me to go up and get the other bag. Maybe they jammed the remote somehow (???). I asked around but nobody saw anything. We spent time complaining to the resort management and security who were nice and polite, and would review any security footage (didn't cover the car itself) for suspicious activity, but denied any liability, since I had left the car unattended.
We felt terrible and violated. It was too late to go to breakfast, so we just went to the airport, complained to Budget about the faulty remote helping to get our things stolen. From the airport, I called the police and filed a report (they wouldn't do anything, but maybe it would help to try to recover something from Budget, or maybe American Express had some coverage that would help).
The whole thing was very upsetting.
We spent the afternoon trying to console ourselves. It was only stuff that could be replaced. Nobody got hurt. The thieves got very little of value to them (lots of laundry, an old laptop, toiletries). My wife and son kept thinking of other things in those bags that were problematic (including lots of DRM'd songs from Apple, some photos on the laptop, a gift that I'd bought for my wife, a library book, etc.). And, there were things (including the suitcase itself) that were memories of my wife's mom (who died this year) that caused grief to lose. My son was worried that he should change all of his passwords (a process I helped him start with my phone).
But, all in all, I think we handled it pretty well. We were rattled, lost some faith in humanity, but reminded ourselves that we were still okay and had each other for support.
After we got home, my wife brought our phone to me and told me that there was a voice mail that I had to hear.
The manager from the resort had called to say that another guest had found our luggage. Apparently, the bags had been placed into their car.
What an idiot!!!! I put our bags into the wrong car!!!
We'll have to pay to have our bags shipped back to us, but we'll get them back.
In retrospect, a few things conspired against me.
- There was another, nearly-identical car parked in the area where I had parked late the night before.
- It was unlocked!!
- It didn't have any stuff in it that made it obviously not our car.
- They left right after I'd loaded it (it wasn't around when we were looking for witnesses and places for the bags to have been stashed).
- I was in a hurry and eager to believe that the car was closer than it really was.
- I wasn't familiar enough with the car to know that what happened wasn't possible.
- There must have been a large vehicle between the cars, obscuring the one the remote was working on.
But, I still feel really dumb. I should have been more suspicious when the key didn't turn in the lock. I think that since the doors had apparently unlocked, I had no doubt that this was the right car. Also, I should have noticed that it wasn't the same spot (I now think our car was two spots further away), but when I saw the open trunk I was too distracted to focus on that. And, I should have been more suspicious about the remote starting to work fine again (but I was already blaming the thief).
Also, nobody hearing the tale asked: "Are you sure it was the right car?"
But, I still feel really dumb.
We'll work on having our stuff shipped back. It will be an expensive lesson, and a good (but really, really embarrassing) story to tell.
I'm sure that some day it will seem more funny than humiliating. But that day is not today.
Sunday, December 15, 2013
I'm paraphrasing, but in response to Stossel's mentioning the concern about wealth inequality, Norberg said something like "Those who are primarily concerned about wealth inequality hate wealth more than they hate poverty."
Now, I know that this isn't true about everyone concerned about wealth inequality, but those who are aware of the tremendous advancement that the poor have made due to markets should be cautious about calling for too much interference and redistribution. Unless, as Norberg says, they are more concerned with taking from the wealthy than the are for the longterm welfare of the poor.
It was a great point.
Saturday, November 30, 2013
Since I haven't written any posts here for a while, I figured I might just pass along what I've been reading lately.
The most recent book I've been reading is The System of Liberty, by George H. Smith.
I'd read Smith's Atheism - The Case Against God in the 80's (I believe), before I knew he had anything to do with libertarianism. I've since seen a few of his lectures (both in person, and in online videos) and have enjoyed his columns in various places including libertarianism.org.
I'm not really much for reading history, but I am interested in the ideas of classical liberalism (libertarianism), so the history of those ideas does hold my interest, and this book is a great presentation of that history (some of which I was already pretty familiar with, but much of which I was not).
It's very well written, and researched, and should be read by anyone who wants to understand what libertarianism is all about, where many of the ideas came from, and what the major debates have been.