A Reasonable Man

Is Government Broken?

Tue, 02 Mar 2010 23:42:02 -0800

I was going to write a post responding to the widespread compaints (largely against the Senate filibuster) that the government is broken, because a majority party can't always get what it wants.

Fortunately, Will Wilkinson already wrote it.

Key excerpt:

From this perspective, the fact that a party decidedly but temporarily in the minority is able to defeat a measure that would have profound, long-term effects on the basic structure of the United States’ institutions is very good evidence that the system works!

What scares me is what will happen after some Republican gains, and the proposals get more "moderate", and government starts "working."

Straight Talk From a Gay MP

Tue, 23 Feb 2010 23:22:13 -0800

This morning, I listened to this Cato Podcast featuring gay British MP Nick Herbert, discussing the benefits of the recent changes in the Conservative Party towards equal rights for gay people in the UK. I was very impressed.

As a libertarian, I've never thought that it was proper for the government to favor or disfavor people because of their sexual orientation. And, just as a modern, sensible (I hope) person, I find prejudice against gay people to be stupid and repulsive.

Also, as a purely practical, strategic, political matter, I think that conservatives in general and the Republican Party in particular would be wise to heed Herbert's call and stop supporting anti-gay public policy measures. Young people are overwhelmingly more tolerant of differences in sexual orientation than their elders, and will be likely to oppose the groups that they find hateful and backwardly stupid. The demographic trend is away from supporters of such policies.

You don't have to find the behavior personally appealing, but to promote legal sanctions against those who do is irrational on many levels.

Testing 123

Mon, 22 Feb 2010 21:48:29 -0800

I'm experimenting with a new web host. Things will probably be broken occasionally while I try things out. I appreciate your patience.

I Want Them Set Free

Mon, 01 Feb 2010 21:01:48 -0800

This is a bit late, but if you haven't seen it yet, you should definitely check out the Hayek vs. Keynes "Fear the Boom and Bust" rap video currently on the home page of econstories.tv.

It might be a little too econ-geeky for many, but it seems like a fun way to exhibit good information about a serious debate that's still with us.

Enjoy!

Happy New Year

Fri, 01 Jan 2010 18:53:29 -0800

I often think it's strange that we let calendars have a huge impact on when we choose to reflect and anticipate things. Why New Years and not other times? Why should the fact that the year number is a multiple of ten make us review and anticipate over longer ranges?

But, then I think: "Why not?" We often get so bogged down in the details of daily life that we lose perspective and fail to examine what's happened or plan for the future as much as we should. So, the changing of the year, and the decade, seems like as good an excuse as any to trigger this healthy behavior. And, if a shared calendar helps us coordinate these efforts and generate better answers, so much the better.

I know that 2009 was a difficult year for many. But, I'm still optimistic for the long term. And, I have a new nephew!

I have little confidence in governments to solve problems, but I have a lot of confidence in lots of people sharing ideas and experience to do so.

So, while I have no idea what 2010 will bring us, I still think things will continue to get better and better (with occasional setbacks).

Have a great year.

Climategate

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 21:40:49 -0800

As I think I've mentioned before, I've been a skeptic about catastrophic global warming ("climate change"). It seems clear that CO₂ has a warming effect, but there has long been enough doubt in my mind about the quality of the models and long-term projections of the net effects to make me cautious about committing to trillions of dollars of mitigation policies just yet.

And, if there were questions about the science before, there are certainly questions about it now. The revelations from the "Climategate" leaked documents should lead any honest person to be less certain of the proclaimed results.

It's difficult to deal with issues that are uncertain, but have potentially huge ramifications. I'm sure that some people try to make the most prudent judgments they can based on the best information available, but most of us are likely to lean towards our preferred results. I'm wary of extremely costly and intrusive political programs ostensibly aimed at reducing CO₂ emissions, so I'm likely to receive the skeptical theories favorably. Others buy into the ideology of the environmental morality tale of people getting too arrogant and far from nature, and they'd like to see policies that rein in economic progress.

So, what's interesting to me about this incident is watching the reactions of those on both sides of the debate. Some people (Will Wilkinson, Ronald Bailey), seem to be reacting reasonably, while others on both sides are drawing extreme and unwarranted conclusions (like climate change has been debunked, or that there's absolutely nothing to see here).

One particularly interesting article I came across today comes from Shikha Dalmia:

"Science and scientific process must inform and guide decisions of my administration on a wide range of issues, including … mitigation of climate change," President Barack Obama declared in a not-so-subtle dig at his predecessor soon after assuming office. "The public must be able to trust the science and scientific process. Public officials should not suppress or alter scientific technological findings."

Last week's Climategate scandal is putting Obama's promise to the test. If he wants to pass, there are two things he should do, pronto: (1) Start singing hosannas to whoever broke the scandal instead of acting like nothing has happened; and (2) Ask eco-warriors at the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit next week to declare an immediate cease-fire in their war against global warming pending a complete review of the science.

...

A complete airing of the science of global warming, which is looking less and less avoidable by the day, might eventually vindicate the claims of climate warriors. Or it might not. The only thing Obama can control in this matter is which side he will support: The truth, or--what he accused his predecessor of--ideology.

I think this is right. Many people have supported policies to avert catastrophe because they honestly believed that that was the most prudent reaction to settled science. Others are ideologues who are largely impervious to criticism (i.e., irrational). It seems to me that all but extreme ideologues would find this "science" quite unsettling.

For insightful commentary on this incident and the climate change debate in general by a smart layman, check out Warren Meyer's Climate Skeptic site (and this, recent, video).

What To Be Thankful For

Sat, 28 Nov 2009 14:15:46 -0800

While there are certainly real problems and challenges these days, those of us who live in first-world countries have much to be thankful for. We're living in a time of amazing abundance and we have more opportunities for productive work and leisure than at any time in human history.

But, it would be foolish to just treat this abundance as either inevitable or as an accident (or as a divine gift). It has real causes; and we could easily undermine them and regress if we don't understand these causes.

In this light, I like to remember an article from Benjamin Powell from last year, with lessons from the Pilgrims at the first Thanksgiving. Here's the gist:

Bad weather or lack of farming knowledge did not cause the pilgrims’ shortages. Bad economic incentives did.

In 1620 Plymouth Plantation was founded with a system of communal property rights. Food and supplies were held in common and then distributed based on equality and need as determined by Plantation officials. People received the same rations whether or not they contributed to producing the food, and residents were forbidden from producing their own food. Governor William Bradford, in his 1647 history, Of Plymouth Plantation, wrote that this system was found to breed much confusion and discontent and retard much employment that would have been to their benefit and comfort. The problem was that young men, that were most able and fit for labour, did repine that they should spend their time and strength to work for other men’s wives and children without any recompense. Because of the poor incentives, little food was produced.

Faced with potential starvation in the spring of 1623, the colony decided to implement a new economic system. Every family was assigned a private parcel of land. They could then keep all they grew for themselves, but now they alone were responsible for feeding themselves. While not a complete private property system, the move away from communal ownership had dramatic results.

This change, Bradford wrote, had very good success, for it made all hands very industrious, so as much more corn was planted than otherwise would have been. Giving people economic incentives changed their behavior. Once the new system of property rights was in place, the women now went willingly into the field, and took their little ones with them to set corn; which before would allege weakness and inability.

Once the Pilgrims in the Plymouth Plantation abandoned their communal economic system and adopted one with greater individual property rights, they never again faced the starvation and food shortages of the first three years. It was only after allowing greater property rights that they could feast without worrying that famine was just around the corner.

We are direct beneficiaries of the economics lesson the pilgrims learned in 1623. Today we have a much better developed and well-defined set of property rights. Our economic system offers incentives for us—in the form of prices and profits—to coordinate our individual behavior for the mutual benefit of all; even those we may not personally know.

I'm thankful for economic (and personal) liberty. It's made life better for billions of people and, if we don't mess it up, will continue to do so.

Free Trade Helps The Environment (and people)

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:58:29 -0800

I just signed this petition. It expresses opposition to "green protectionism."

One of the terrible ideas likely to be considered at the UN convention on climate change next month is to use trade sanctions to enforce environmental compliance. I can understand that most eco-alarmists are, like voters, rationally ignorant of the quality of their expressed preferences because the status they gain by their signaling outweighs the likely consequences of their marginal contribution to the debate.

But, sometimes, the policies are so stupid and dangerous that I find it hard to sympathize with their advocates. Inhibiting trade is such an instance.

Trade increases wealth. Not just for the already wealthy, but (more importantly) for the terribly impoverished as well. It saves lives, promotes peace, and it helps the environment. If you want people to care about the environment enough to trade-off some of their wealth, then you should want to hasten the growth of their economies. The historical evidence on this is very clear.

Here are some quotes from the petition signers:

“Economists don't agree reliably. When they do, listen up: In international trade, freer is fairer and smarter.

Free trade has the authority of Adam Smith, classical economics, neoclassical economics, Keynesian economics, and basically all economics. The International Policy Network is doing a great service in advancing the wisdom and humanity of free trade.”

Daniel Klein, Professor of Economics, George Mason University

“The proof of the enormous economic benefits of free trade is all around us, not least in the impoverished third world that has already benefited mightily from so-called globalization. It is immoral and irresponsible, or just plain stupid, that politicians, and the special interests they protect, would sacrifice this humanitarian improvement in welfare for their own short-lived personal gain. The Freedom to Trade Campaign has the potential to do far more good for the world than all the foreign aid ever devised.”

Henry Manne, Dean Emeritus George Mason University School of Law.

"We have it in our paper [sic] to turn the present recession into a depression. One good way to do that is to succumb to the crude politics and base impulses of nationalism and racism that underlie the demand for protectionism. A better alternative is to support and extend economic interchange across borders, motivated both by the liberal values of tolerance, choice and openness and by a wealth of empirical evidence demonstrating the relationship between trade and economic growth."

Jeffrey Smith, Department of Economics, University of Michigan

"International free trade is about more than ensuring that consumers can get the most value for their spending dollar, as important as that is during a recession when incomes are strained. Trade builds trust and understanding among people regardless of their physical location. Greater interdependence makes war less likely. These are values we always should cherish, but especially when economic uncertainty provides fertile soil for those who would drive us against each other. Now more than ever, free trade is best."

Dr. Eric Crampton, Senior Lecturer, Department of Economics, University of Canterbury

Sign the thing.

Still Alive

Sun, 18 Oct 2009 15:38:40 -0700

I haven't posted anything yet this month, so I figure I should at least get something up here. So, here's a quick catch-up post.

At the beginning of the month I spent a three-day weekend visiting Los Angeles to meet my new nephew (Nicholas Michael Milbauer) and his great parents, as well as some old friends around my 30-year high school reunion. Everything went great. Here's newborn Nick in his "Thinker" pose:

He's perfect.

As for politics, not much has changed. Most participants act like members of a tribe who are willing to mischaracterize their goals and those of their opponents in order to "win" the battle. We're likely to get some kind of health care bill, but it will probably do much more harm than good. Wonderful.